Il giorno giovedì 12 settembre, alle ore 16.00,  nell’aula F del dipartimento, Pierre-Alexandre BLIMAN (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions and Inria Mamba team, Paris)  terrà un seminario dal titolo:

Minimizing epidemic final size through social distancing

Abstract: How to apply partial or total containment measures during a given finite time interval, in order to minimize the final size of an epidemic — that is the cumulative number of cases infected during its whole course? We provide here a complete answer to this question for the SIR epidemic model. Existence and uniqueness of an optimal strategy is proved for the infinite-horizon problem corresponding to control on an interval [0,T], T>0 (Problem 1), and then on any interval of length T (Problem 2). For both problems, the best policy consists in applying the maximal allowed social distancing effort until the end of the interval [0,T] (Problem 1), or during a whole interval of length T (Problem 2), starting at a date that is not systematically the closest date, and which may be computed by a simple algorithm. These optimal interventions have to begin before the proportion of susceptible individuals crosses the herd immunity level, and lead to limiting values smaller than this threshold. We also study the following more general issue (Problem 3):
how to apply confinement during a (possibly disconnected) set of measure at most T, in order to minimize the final size? This problem is shown to have the same optimal solution than Problem 2. These results have been obtained with Michel Duprez (Inria), Yannick Privat (Université de Strasbourg), Alain Rapaport (INRAE) and Nicolas Vauchelet (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord).

Gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.